I saw the hearings of Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill. Heard that he is working on a book on organizational noise versus signal. Daniel Kahneman: Putting Your Intuition on Ice [The Knowledge Project Ep. Whether it’s too much or too little, it probably depends a lot on people’s amount of consumption of memory that people engage in. Image via me. I mean, just randomness. It really depends on the social disrupture that is imposed by a given culture. It is about how we experience things and how we remember them (where this conversation started). The problem with intuition is that it forms very quickly, so that you need to have special procedures in place to control it except in those rare cases — and Gary Klein and others have demonstrated that — where you have intuitive expertise. So you have people who are specialists in this. COWEN: And you think even knowing about this doesn’t change that. In organizations, transparency, great communications and regular repeated reminders are necessary to keep everyone focused. Happiness feels good in the moment. So that postponed it to spring 2021. I recommend Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow, to anyone who still reads long non-fiction books. Kahneman and Tversky experiments. ? It’s been a great honor to have you. A successful branding program is based on the concept of singularity. Retrospectively, you find, “Oh yeah, this is what I did,” in the historical perspective. COWEN: Your current collaborators on the noise book — how would you describe that collaboration? It is that you’re putting a different value on a move or an investment that you make because of investment that you have already made than you would if you were looking at that de novo. We didn’t think of it. Very interesting discussion including why “kind learning” environments such as chess are easier to train versus “wicked learning” environments such as healthcare are harded - covered first by David Epstein in his book — Range — Why Generalists Triump in a Specialised World. And it turned out to be a major asset in our work because our work, our joint work, had a touch of irony to it. . All I do know is that, when we pointed out the results, the bewildering results of the experiment on underwriters, and there was another unit — people who assess the size of claims. This book, as the title says, is about how we think - sometimes fast, instantaneous and reactive and sometimes slow, deliberate, and methodical. Do you share his opinion or not? And whether prediction markets consistently beat averaging is, I think, not yet fully established. “Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self”. It’s a fact that you feel pride when your team wins. COWEN: Personality psychology and five-factor personality theory — is that, for you, a useful way of thinking about human beings? It’s happening in dermatology. More on how this power is used or misused in current times later in the post. To give you a sense of the way that works, there is psychologist Paul Rozin, who has done some brilliant experiments on that. What’s important is the intensity because the intensity is a measure of the severity of threat. I recently finished reading Thinking Fast and Slow, a book on behavioral psychology and decision-making by Daniel Kahneman. The duration is really something else. Know thyself. I was working with an insurance company, and we did a very standard experiment. Suppose you have a computer that approves loans, and then you’re the banker, and you see that the person who was approved for a loan has just been arrested for fraud. It means that people have difficulty controlling their attention, focusing on what they want to focus on, and staying focused. KAHNEMAN: This is something — it’s an emotion over which people have no control, and our socialization has created those emotions in us. Which in turn is about how our mind works. I grew up very early in the history of Israel, when the state was small and everyone could make a difference. KAHNEMAN: And I mean that seriously. 5 Books You Must Read To Transform Your Writing, 6 Things I Learned When I Asked People About Their Reading Choices. There is an interesting fact — that noise and bias are independent sources of error, so that reducing either of them improves overall accuracy. It is the internal peer review module, the one that needs convincing via data or some rationalization which keeps System 1 in check. Noise will be reduced. KAHNEMAN: There were whole sets of results that I published in Thinking, Fast and Slow that I wish I hadn’t published because they’re not reliable. Most of us classify and categorize people based on many factors including what we see in the media. COWEN: If you think about the issue of, when people think about the world, they find some kind of transactions repugnant. KAHNEMAN: I would really probe. Really good discussion before his Antifragility book. … COWEN: Do you think that telling people you’ll be happier a particular way changes their behavior much? Gary Klein and I became friends over a period of six years when we were trying to find out, what are the boundaries? I think I would feel free to probe, where does that strong wish come from? Where’s the bias? nobody actually today would, I think, claim that even the most sophisticated programs have it. COWEN: Completely foreign. And that’s what we’re talking about here. Start a fire and then go sell extinguishers. KAHNEMAN: I’ll tell you where the experiment from which my current fascination with noise arose. If you made a list of intelligent ways to go at problems, that’s what people do. Basic lesson, if you train the AI with biased behavior, chances are you will propogate that behavior. So that’s noise, and you find variability across individuals, which is not supposed to exist. To appreciate the distinction, think of your bathroom scale. It took people completely by surprise. It’s the only thing we get to keep. With the rise of the internet, the rise of more readily available information — so many prices, things you can see on Amazon — all this price discrimination and differentiation across products has grown with that. The anchoring effect is a well documented bias and the best researchers in this field are widely regarded as Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who’ve … how important good memories are relative to the experience itself, autistics — they have weaker framing effects, Freud’s two principles of mental functioning, started work on heuristics and biases with Amos Tversky, Jimmy Wales on Systems and Incentives (Ep. People clearly overestimate what they can do and how good they are. But I do not consume my memories a lot. COWEN: But say it were always transparent who would be the winners and who would be the losers from a given decision. I could ask you, and I asked the executives in the firm, and it’s a number that just about everybody agrees. You’re going to have Gary Klein–type intuition, expert intuition, if you have a regular world. That’s a fact, and the rest is a lot of bias. 108), Michelle Dawson on Autism and Atypicality (Ep. There may be some resemblance. You can’t talk yourself out of the bias? And that made him very charismatic. KAHNEMAN: I don’t know exactly how to explain it, but I thought that this was not a loss for me, to do psychology in a second language. KAHNEMAN: Overconfidence has many virtues. So the moral emotion of shame and your thoughts. This will help you own your story or you go end up in someone else’s narrative. That’s something else. What we remember may not always be what we experienced. In the UK, in particular, there is — I wouldn’t call it an industry, but it’s sponsored by government. And that’s a blessing, undoubtedly. Every day, Dohány Tamás and thousands of other voices read, write, and share important stories on Medium. I’d rather be two hours late. KAHNEMAN: I’m optimistic on virtually nothing. To start with the questions here. It’s for children. COWEN: Now your basic distinction between System 1 and System 2, thinking fast and thinking slow — to the extent that particular results do not replicate, do you view that as undercutting the System 1 versus System 2 distinction? The confusion and disinformation that spread in Europe with Brexit and others has been debilitating to any progress there. We derive a lot of emotion from it. When people consider errors in judgment and decision making, they most likely think of social biases like the stereotyping of minorities or of cognitive biases such as overconfidence and unfounded optimism. Make the idea ubiquitous via every media (availabity heuristic), make it social (Bandwagon, groupthink) and let it spread (choice-supportive). And I thought that, in a way, it can be an advantage to operate in a second language, that there are certain things . I was, as a lieutenant in the army, age 21 or 22 — I made a difference. But there is at least a continuum to be explored of those two extremes. Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo discuss the planning fallacy in relation to the ‘inside view’. More on this topic later in the blog. Then, of course, you can achieve more rational results than you could. Good and immediate feedback, is the basis of 10,000 hours of practice. I’ll give you an example where it would be okay to override a machine. You can ask in the sense that they are driven by something that didn’t happen, that could have happened but didn’t. Or is that just a foreign stream? Or is that somehow subsumed in bias and noise? KAHNEMAN: He picks the teams by results, so what he has, he has people competing in making probabilistic forecasts of strategic or economic events in the medium and short term. What made this unusual is that Kahneman is a psychologist. KAHNEMAN: Yeah. And the first was just more on the replication crisis. Give it a few decades — it’s going to be irrelevant. Then psychology came very soon after. I wouldn’t generalize on that, but it would take . It’s there. COWEN: Moving the chess piece is often harder than figuring out the best move for the program. Is that their bias? Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent … He won the prize mostly for his work in decision making, specifically Prospect Theory. Of course, your message will be true. I think it’s proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that when you have people making forecasts for the medium term — up to six months, say, in many situations — you can help people thinking carefully without any training, who do better than CIA analysts. Our choice of topic lent itself to a lot of things that are virtually impossible in other fields. What an honour Sir!” is published by Younes Henni, PhD. But if you want to apply it, then clearly there is a lot of psychoanalysis in Argentina, and there’s no indication that it makes them more sane. 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